By Alan
Caruba
As we close in on the 13th anniversary of the infamous 9/11 attack
on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, the media is full of predictions about
attacks that will occur.
A September 2nd Debka
File, an Israeli news agency, reported “Credible information has reached
Saudi, British and Australian agencies that two al Qaeda branches—ISIS in Iraq
and Syria and AQAP at its base in Yemen—have wrapped up plans to roll out
coordinated terrorist spectaculars around the 13th anniversary of the September 11, 2001
attacks on New York and Washington. According to Debka File’s counterterrorism
sources, they are preparing to strike simultaneously in the Middle East and a
West European city. Next, they will go for U.S. targets in the Middle East and
Europe.”
This report and other factors incline
me to believe there will not be a major attack somewhere in the U.S. on what is
now officially called “Patriot Day.”
There could be a lone wolf attack along the lines of Major Hassan’s 2009
“workplace violence” at Fort Hood or the Boston Marathon bombing, but the
threats being made by the Islamic State and other elements of al Qaeda, while
intended to raise fears in America, are likely to be manifested in the Middle
East. American outlets there will be on full alert for
sure.
The Islamic State, while now wealthy,
well equipped militarily, and attracting every lunatic Islamist and wannabe
terrorist, is facing an increasingly united group of Middle East nations that
have put old enemies like Iran and Saudi Arabia on the same page together. Iran
has dispatched troops to Iraq to support the Kurds. When other Middle Eastern
nations finally screw up enough courage to actually do something they will wage
a war on ISIS in the interest of self-defense, a powerful
motive.
As for al Qaeda’s war on America, it
was declared in 1996 by the late, unlamented Osama bin Laden and, other than
9/11, it has done little to follow up on that dramatic sneak attack except for a
few failed efforts. The U.S. responded by bombing the hell out of Afghanistan
and our troops there have been attacking the Taliban ever since. Obama says he
will pull them out in 2015. Given events in Iraq, that is a very bad
idea.
The Department of Homeland Security
has been on alert ever since it was created shortly after 9/11. This is not to
say that the U.S. doesn’t need more on-the-ground intelligence penetration of al
Qaeda and its affiliates. Indeed, DHS and other government agencies don’t know
the whereabouts of several thousand foreign students who are supposed to be at
our colleges and universities. They likely do not know who else among those with
easy access to the nation is a potential terrorist.
So, yes, that could mean I am very
wrong and that 9/11 would be a day for a whole series of attacks for much the
same reason our consulate in Libya was attacked that day in 2012. The Benghazi
cover-up has been falling apart ever since. The lie that it was caused by a
video grows more absurd and obscene very day.
The Israelis have made a far greater
and more successful effort than us to infiltrate their enemy’s organizations.
Hamas was so rattled by the effectiveness of the Israeli bombing of sites where
its rockets were stored and fired from, as well as the killing of a number of
its leaders, that they made a public display of executing a number of people
they accused of being Israeli spies, whether they were or not. The likelihood
was that they were Gazans who had spoken out against
Hamas.
After breaking a number of ceasefires,
Hamas, running out of any support, accepted the most recent one and Israel
thereafter announced the annexation of more West Bank territory for its
settlements and, no doubt, for militarization to protect against further
attacks. The Israelis know how to deal with their enemies, to prepare, and to
take action rather than issue empty threats.
There have even been a number of small
events by American Muslims speaking out against barbarity of the Islamic State
and the threats leveled at the U.S. That is a hopeful sign, but it needs to
increase in numbers and volume. The vast silence of the 1.3 billion Muslims in
the world is an offense to humanity.
The Arabs of the Middle East are
forever making dramatic threats, but they have a record of doing little. When
Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq, he waged a war against Iran that ended
inconclusively and then invaded Kuwait and was defeated by a U.S. coalition.
When he continued to make threats the U.S. invaded again and deposed
him.
What followed was an effort in several
Middle Eastern nations to rid themselves of their despots. This occurred in
Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Only Egypt, after a brief encounter with a Muslim
Brotherhood government, rallied again with a military coup that led to the
election of a new military leader. The Brotherhood has been banned! Libya is a
failed state that has been taken over by Islamic militants. Tunisia has a new
constitution as of January and numerous political parties. Its government is
battling local militias.
Iraq is in near failure as it tries to
unite its Shiite and Sunni factions in a functioning government. Much of the
nation has been taken over by the Islamic State in the same fashion as northern
Syria whose civil war has killed 190,000 and driven over a million out as
refugees in Lebanon, Jordan and anywhere else they could flee. Who has put
troops into Iraq to resist the Islamic State? The
Iranians!
One threat the President of the United
States does not appear to have taken seriously is an Iran with a nuclear weapon
and the intercontinental missiles to deliver it. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia
are far more aware of the danger this poses and in all likelihood Israel will
conclude it must destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and military
installations.
The United States has lost virtually
all the influence it once had in the Middle East, even if it came from the
barrel of a gun. Our Secretary of State, John Kerry, is held in low regard by
both the Israelis and Arabs. The President, Kerry, and Hillary Clinton keep
insisting that “climate change” is the greatest threat to mankind.
If President Obama does not engage in
the destruction—not “containment”—of the Islamic State, its oil wealth will
enable it to become a major threat in the Middle East and beyond, including us.
They have demonstrated no restraint on their use of violence and pose a threat
comparable or even greater than the Nazi regime of the last century.
Will there be attack or attacks in the
U.S. on 9/11? We all wish we know the answer, but we
don’t.
© Alan Caruba, 2014
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