Iraq Analysis and News........................................from DJ

Chances of reaching an agreement between Baghdad and Kurdistan increased due of Mosul situation: Iraqi Oil Minister

DJ writes: (Caveat : This is just speculation ATT)

'Notice the timing.

1. One of the first things ISIS did was announce they were not attacking the Kurds.
2. The KRG is reframing from the fight using the excuse of no request from Malaki - as if that ever stopped them before.
3. I don't think the Kurds expected ISIS to get this far but, the removal of 3 IA Divs [with significant Kurdish components] from the fight facilitated it...

Prior agreement indicated there.

Now the KRG has just cause to declare independence: The total failure of the Malaki government to provide security.
Notice how quick the Kurdish Regional Guards have been to move into the disputed zones - with no oposition.
No matter how the fight with ISIS plays out - the KRG now owns the disputed zones and has cause to declare independence.
While the Baghdad government is too busy with ISIS to oppose the KRG...

Note that this cannot work without Turkish agreement.
I think that the GoT is reserecting the old Mustafa Kemal plan for a confederation of Turk and Kurd that he abandoned in 1925 when UK/FR claimed the southern Kurdish southern regions.
I've been seeing signs of this from the Turks for 3 years now.

It would also help if Iran was on board - plans for Iran to intervene in southern Iraq to protect the Shia?

This could result in new borders...

Or it could all fall apart...

Either way, Malaki is done for.'



Kurdistan Region-Ira​q News in brief

Kirkuk Under Kurdish Peshmerga Control

Aiming at Baghdad, ISIS Continues Rapid Advance Against Collapse

Iraqi government asks US to bomb Islamist fighters as 30,000 troops flee their posts

Insurgent ​Offensive Bogs Down After Capturing US Humvees