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Tuesday, 31 July 2012

From 4 cents to less-than-​zero?.....................from Rico

Risk?

Bonds have long been considered "safe" sources of risk-free returns, and despite the massive over-indebtedness of governments, bond markets are many multiples of the size of equity markets. Trading volumes in equities are plunging, and money flows are quietly heading in the direction of bonds, reflecting the departure of retail investors from the rigged equity market casinos and the movement of institutional money into the safety of bonds.

Even the legendary Bill Gross of PIMCO says "The cult of equity may be dying...boomers can't take risk, Gen X and Y believe in Facebook but not its stock. Gen Z has no money."

But, buying bonds (governmental debt) is much like handing-over your paycheck to a drunken sailor on Saturday night on the 'promise and pinky-swear' you'll get it back.
- How many dozen times have we been told that 'Greece was fixed?' They've had two bailouts so far, and it's seriously looking like a third is needed. In fairness, other larger governments are bigger problems and just as untrustworthy and unreliable.

Looking at bonds from 30,000 feet you have to conclude that they are now "return-free risk."

Even that may very widely miss the mark. With all governments debasing their fiat currencies to cheapen their debt loads and 'juice' moribund economies, the point should not be 'return ON your money, but the return OF your money.'
- With the USD now worth about four cents, it's rather stupid to look at nominal 'gains' with the DJIA now over 13,000.....heck, it can go over 50,000 but this will be meaningless if paper becomes worth less-than-zero (think Zimbabwe).


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