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Monday 3 January 2011

Real estate vs. the fourth estate........from Rico

CRE (commercial real estate) isn't talked about by the Mnistry of Truth a.k.a. the Fourth estate, but it is taking-down banks at an evr-increasing clip.
- Some are forecasting 800 bank failures in 2011, primarily due to CRE.

Less talked about (if THAT'S possible) is housing. Homes. The other 'real estate.'
- I think Case-Shiller are right and housing prices/values will revert to the mean. [Translation for Democrats (C): Drop. Fall in value.] This would mean a further decline of 23%....but, just like values overshot on the upside I suspect they will overshoot to the downside and over-correct, meaning more than a 23% drop.

Just don't hold your breath for any similar decline in property taxes, however.
- Not as Counties go broke and Municipal Bonds tank.

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