Tuesday 13 October 2009

Just TWO things.........from Rico

Despite all the gassing-on and bloviating about 'recovery' and 'it's technically over' plus the 'strong dollar' humbug emanating from Larry Summers (has this guy EVER been right about anything in his entire life? Name one thing...please), the two charts tell me TWO simple things.

1. The dollar is on a downward trend. Short-term AND long-term this has been the case. I do not see this mis-administration listening to Larry Kudlow and doing anything to "CHANGE" this. A weak dollar is defacto policy...it's just not a stated-policy. As long as Benny the Beard (the Fed) keep interest rates near zero, nothing can be done to rescue the dollar.
- Gold has doubled in the last four years. Where will it be in four more years?
- The dollar has 'lost' over 90% of it's value since Nixon. What will it be worth when Obama gets done with it? [Doubt me? Track the DXY:IND like I have, and let's discuss it.]

2. The Fed tends to raise interest rates well after unemployment peaks. Unemployment has not yet peaked. It will be several more years (2011? 2012?) before the Fed and the FOMC dare raise interest rates.

Take-away: The dollar is in serious trouble for the next few years. We're in even more serious trouble for longer than that. "HOPE" all you want, it won't "CHANGE" a damned thing....not for the good, anyway.



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