History and the present.............from Rico

The Beard (Ben Bernanke) is ofetn referred to as a student of the Great Depression, which somehow qualifies him to not make the same mistakes as the last time thus avoiding another depression.

Well, maybe he is making a new set of mistakes and we ARE getting a new depression?
- Hey, that's "CHANGE" isn't it?

Ironic that a real estate bubble burst in 1926, three years before the stock market tanked, eh? Surely Ben knew thia...and so did YOU (what do you mean this hasn't been mentioned in the media?).

The first leg down of the Great Depression saw the DJIA drop by 48%.
- The first leg down of the 2007 'bear market' saw the DJIA drop by 53%.

Both times, the initial declines were followed by vigorous persistent rallies.
- Last time, however, this was followed by another decline...47% further down. But surely both Ben and you knew that, too (didn't you? media remarks infra germane).

What is coming for us next? Green shoots....or more manure? There are some game changers to watch, but we already have three or four of the five on the scene.
1. New credit growth falls below interest payments. Check.
2. The FED monetizes debt. Check.
3. Gov't spending exeeds 10% of the GDP. (It's currently about 13%). Check.
4. The Dollar declines (a) and interest rates go up (b). Maybe, maybe not. I'd keep an eye on this one now...the above are already here.
5. US debt becomes denominated in foreign currencies. (Japan already buys US debt - bonds - denominated in Yen. China is now asking for the same treatment, to be able to buy US debt denominated in Yuan.)
- Why? Well, if the Dollar is trashed the debt gets payed-back with monopoly money. If you hold the same debt in a currency that has not been debased/trashed you actually get paid back the value of what your initial investment. Which would you want to do? THIS IS THE BIG ONE. When this happens, you can count on a future with less of everything.

I'd watch out for myself at this point. the government sure isn't!