Iraq v Afghanistan........from DJ Elliott

Afghanistan is roughly the same land area as Iraq and a 10-20% larger population with a considerably worse road network.

NATO/US numbers on the ground are half what is now in Iraq (only 1/3rd max surge).
ASF is only about a fifth the size of ISF.

Yet Casualties, and insident rates only became comparable to Iraq when Iraq's activity dropped by 80% over the last 18 months.

That puts the BS about Afghanistan's activity into perspective.

Do we need a surge? Yes.
For the same reason we did in Iraq and the press ignored: Covering for while training and expanding the ASF to a size capable of covering the size of the country.

I expect the USMC to be completely out of Anbar in January.
I do not expect the USMC to reduce its deployment schedule.
RCT7 is already ready to go and RCT3 is not due to leave for some time now.
Which means they are about to augment the MEB to a MEF in Afghanistan...

The real problems in Afghan are
1. logistics: How many can you support?
2. Pakistan: Safehaven.
3. Russia: Power politics, they do not like NATO there.
4. Iran: Own adjenda.