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Sunday 30 November 2008

Stormbringer on the Mumbai Attacks......

'I caution our brethren in the community not to underestimate these forces and whoever is behind them. Despite the fact that their plan contained many moving parts it was brilliant in it's simplicity and the ability of the assault elements to successfully engage several specific targets simultaeneously.

In analyzing the terrorist operation; it is significant that they first hit the Colaba police station - possibly as a single unit - and killed the Chief of Mumbai's anti-terrorist squad plus two other senior officials. These actions served as diversions to delay the police response.

Ultimately, a platoon-sized terrorist force was able to overcome the crews of two ships at sea and hijack them, land, then break up into dedicated teams and move toward and attack 10 separate objectives (including the police station). Their targets were places where foreigners are known to congregate: the Taj Mahal and Trident hotels, the orthodox Jewish center, the Cama hospital, the CSP train station, a cinema, and a cafe. They were able to hit all targets practically simultaneously. In addition two taxis were blown up near the airport in the north and the docks in the southern part of the city.

What is particularly disturbing is the striking military theme of the terrorist attacks - the overall plan was completely in accordance with the philosophy behind our own conventional military doctrine i.e. "MOOSEMUSS" - Mass / Objective / Offensive / Simplicity / Economy of Effort / Maneuver / Unity of Command / Surprise / Security. The only aspect of this operation that differentiates it from our own is the fact that it was a one-way suicide mission - there was no apparent intent to withdraw and exfiltrate.

Two other aspects of this incident are disturbing; if indeed al Qaeda or a sympathetic movement is behind this operation it is the first time they have engaged multiple targets with seperate elements outside of a full-on combat zone (i.e. Iraq or Afghanistan) and it is also the first time in the course of the Kashmir-related violence that mass groups of Westerners were sought and singled out as targets.
The terrorist leadership has no doubt taken notice of the effectiveness of this low-tech approach. Such a mission could easily be carried out on any continent, to include North America. Short of a "backpack nuke" scenario, we will probably never again see an operation as sophisticated as the 9/11 plot. On the other hand, we now have every reason to expect terrorist attacks on our own soil, inspired by what happened this week in Mumbai.

That the Mumbai attacks were significant on several different levels is the armchair tactician's take . . . but on a more sinister level there is agreement within my community that this particular raid (the Mumbai attacks) were not what they appear to be, i.e. ". . . an operation in disguise as another . . ."

This is BRILLIANT of course. . . the concept that the entire operation was either some kind of capabilities exercise / rehearsal a la the Dieppe Raid . . . or it was a diversion in itself; " . . . a practice run for a larger attack planned for elsewhere . . ."

WHATEVER it was at this time we MUST assume that ". . . in some cave they're doing AARs (After Action Reviews) on it all, viewing film clips and tweaking the model . . ."

One lesson my fellow Veterans & I must take from this incident: from this point on, we go nowhere unarmed.'

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